EUR/USD up by 0.2% as pandemic recovery money discussed

The single European currency saw peaks and troughs in the foreign exchange markets as trading got underway on Monday.

The first dip for the currency came after something of a deadlock emerged at a summit between heads of government from across the bloc at the weekend.

The leaders met face to face in Brussels to discuss their fiscal responses to the coronavirus pandemic, and they managed to make some agreements.

Charles Michel, who serves as the chairman of the summit in his capacity as President of the European Council, did indicate that a significant amount of this would be delivered in grant format.

One news report even suggested that €390bn of cash could be packaged in this format.

However, the leaders appeared unable to confirm exactly how the cash would be distributed.

The summit was scheduled to conclude on Saturday, but it has since been extended further as leaders attempt to negotiate tricky waters around questions of whether or not the richer, northern countries in the bloc ought to essentially pay for recovery in the poorer nations.

The euro managed to scale some new highs at first.

It reached $1.1467 in its pair against the dollar at one stage when Michel made his announcement, putting it at its best position in almost 20 weeks.

However, it later went down in value – before then rebounding by a fifth of a percentage point.

It was spotted at $1.1446 after that.

According to analysts, the currency appears to be finding it difficult to break ahead of the crucial $1.1495 benchmark – which, if it managed to do so, would be a significant development.

While most attention was focused on Europe, some small movements did happen in other countries.

In Britain, for example, the pound managed to hold firm in its pair against the US dollar – reaching $1.2572 at one point.

In its pair against the single European currency, however, it was down – but only by the small amount of 0.1%.

Here, it managed to reach 91.05 pence.

The fact that the pound avoided significant declines, however, is a sign that the underlying market mood is one of optimism.

The British currency has taken a beating in recent months due to the ongoing troubles posed by Brexit and, in particular, the trade deal that the country must strike with the EU before the end of the year in order to avert significant knock-on economic effects.

Whether or not this optimism will be able to survive the outcome of negotiations between European leaders (as well as other economies currently debating stimulus packages), however, remains to be seen.

Monday afternoon looks set to be dominated by speeches from central bankers.

These will begin at 2:30pm BST when Philip Lane, who sits on the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, speaks.

In the UK, meanwhile, a speech from Andrew Haldane, who is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England, will take place at 3:10pm BST.

This will be swiftly followed by a speech from Silvana Tenreyro, who sits on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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