EUR/USD approaches 1.1966, appears to be on the up

The euro has been doing well in the foreign exchange markets in recent months – especially since the US dollar saw its jitters continue.

However, traders and analysts have now turned their attention back to it following the arrival of the currency at the 1.1966 point on the price charts.

This is a significant position for the currency given that it represents its high point from last month.

It later went on to trade in a more limited range.

However, the poor performance of the dollar in recent days thanks to a recent Federal Reserve announcement has meant that this position is back in play for the euro.

Some analysts perceive the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the pair to be showing a potential uptrend overall, even though value levels have fluctuated due to the Fed’s announcement.

There is a belief that the RSI is likely to soar well over the 70 level in the coming days, and comes alongside a surge in the pair’s value.

There are some threats on the horizon for the pair’s value, however.

The rise in the value of the RSI is not in the bag, and it recently saw a drop to under the crucial 70 level – leading to a sell-off.

Aside from price chart analysis, it is worth looking at the economic calendar to see what other market-moving events could be on the horizon in the coming days.

Wednesday, for example, will see a producer price index for the month of July revealed at 9am GMT.

Year on year, this is due to show a change from -3.7% to -3.4%.

On a month-on-month basis, a decline from 0.7% to 0.5% is expected to be seen in this metric.

Looking ahead to Thursday, meanwhile, a range of purchasing managers’ indices from many major European countries is due to be published.

Spanish PMI levels for the services sector in August will be out at 7:15am GMT.

This is due to show a change from 51.9 to 48.

The Italian equivalent is due to be out half an hour later, and it is set to show a shift from 51.6 to 49.2.

After that, there will be a release from France, Germany and then a Europe-wide one.

At 9am GMT, there will be a retail sales release for July covering the whole of the continent.

This is set to show a year-on-year change from 1.3%, where it rested previously, to 3.5%.

A month-on-month release for the same period will be out in the same slot, and is due to go from 5.7% to 1.4%.

Later on Thursday, there will be some central bank action.

Isabel Schnabel, who sits on the executive board of the European Central Bank, is due to speak at 3pm GMT, and her statement will no doubt be watched closely by traders of the euro.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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