EUR/NZD moving close to 1.7172 – impact on risk?

The New Zealand dollar is one of the world’s major currencies, though news about it is sometimes overshadowed by news from its larger neighbour, Australia.

However, the Kiwi dollar also has its ups and downs, and this week has been no exception.

According to technical indicators, the New Zealand dollar is performing well in its pair against the single European currency.

The EUR/NZD pair has been declining in value slowly since the end of March following the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic on the world stage.

It is currently stuck close to the 1.7172 level.

This negative outlook for the single currency, however, may be about to change given that senior government leaders across the EU have now agreed an enormous stimulus package.

Ironically, though, the Kiwi dollar’s long-held status as a risk-on currency could stand it in good stead in this regard – especially if hopes that the pandemic’s economic effects are over continue to flourish.

The arrival of stimulus packages from Europe and potentially soon elsewhere may indicate to the markets that risky currencies are worth the investment – meaning that there is some hope for the Kiwi dollar to continue its positive trend.

The Kiwi dollar seems to be experiencing something similar in its pair with the Canadian dollar.

There, the Kiwi dollar has been enjoying something of an upswing – though technical indicators suggest that this may be under threat as time goes on.

Here, the picture is complex given that the Canadian dollar is also seen as a distinctively risk-era currency rather than a safe haven – meaning that risk cannot be seen as the main factor in determining its performance.

With half of the foreign exchange trading week left to go, it is worth exploring what external events could be on the cards for the Kiwi dollar.

On Thursday, for example, a series of trade balance-related statistics will be released from the country.

Its overall trade balance for June, for example, will be out at 10:45pm GMT.

Year on year, this was last recorded at well under $1bn.

There is currently no forecast of what will come next.

Broken-down import and export figures for June will also be revealed in the same time slot.

Import figures were last recorded at $4.14bn, and export figures were last seen at $5.39bn.

There are again, however, no concrete forecasts for where these figures will move next.

Looking ahead to next week, meanwhile, Monday will see an important labour market-related piece of news from New Zealand.

Figures on total filled jobs for June will be out at 10:45pm GMT on that day, and will be released by Stats NZ.

This figure was last recorded at 2,180,000.

Whether or not the coronavirus pandemic will continue to exert influence on this figure, however, remains to be seen.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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