USDJPY sustains intermediate-term bull bias, as USDCAD shifts bearish

Chris Lee

  • In our last article here on USDJPY and USDCAD from 9th July we highlighted a positive tone for the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, but negative risks versus the Canadian Dollar.
  • USDJPY has seen a correction lower, but whilst holding above the 110.25 level we still maintain an intermediate-term bullish view.
  • For USDCAD, however, we warned of a potentially more negative tone and the surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.


Immediate upside bias whilst above new 110.57 support

A solid Friday consolidation, after Thursday’s probe below the notable 110.74/68 support area and then rebound from new support at 110.57, and whilst holding here to keep risks higher Monday.

The early July push above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see a rebound bias higher for 111.54 and 111.85/90; break here maybe aims for 112.55/60.
  • But below 110.57 opens risk down to key 110.28/25.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.39/55.

  • Higher targets would be 114.73, 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
  • What Changes This? Below 110.25 shifts the outlook back to neutral; only through 109.35 signals for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.54 111.85/90 112.55/60 113.14/18* 113.39**
110.57 110.28/25*** 109.95* 109.65* 109.35***

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2018-07-30


Risks still lower

A setback Friday, dismissing Thursday’s rebound effort, and whilst capped by 1.3135 resistance we still see negative pressures from the latter July selloff through the key 1.3063/61area (that completed a significant intermediate-term topping pattern) to keep risks lower Monday.

The surrender of the key 1.3063/61area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Today:

  • Whilst below 1.3135 we see a downside bias for 1.3020; break here quickly aims for 1.3000, maybe 1.2945.
  • But above 1.3135 opens risk up to 1.3191.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2814.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2725 and 1.2536
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3290 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3386 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3135* 1.3191** 1.3247* 1.3290*** 1.3351
1.3020 1.3000 1.2945** 1.2917* 1.2891

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2018-07-30