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USDJPY intermediate-term bear shift bias; USDCAD stays bearish

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  • In our 30th July article here on USDJPY and USDCAD we highlighted a still positive tone for the USDJPY whilst holding above the 110.25 level and a bearish intermediate-term shift for USDCAD.
  • The US Dollar versus Japanese Yen selloff into mid-August below 110.25 shifted the USDJPY intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
  • For the US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar, the prior surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, and despite a recent USDCAD recovery effort, we see the intermediate-term bear bias intact (whilst below 1.3290).

 

USDJPY Bear bias

Another notable setback Friday through 110.41 support to reinforce Thursday’s setback from resistance at 111.12, PLUS the mid-August failure from below the 111.53 resistance level (from 111.43), to keep the bias lower into Monday.

The mid-August surrender of 110.25 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 110.28 and 110.08; below aims at 109.95 and 109.65.
  • But above 110.93 opens risk up towards 111.43/53, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 109.35.

  • Lower targets would be 108.08, 106.88 and maybe 104.54
  • What Changes This? Above 112.15 shifts the outlook straight back to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.12 111.43/53* 111.88* 112.15*** 112.55/60
110.28 110.08* 109.95* 109.65* 109.35**

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 usdjpy

 

USDCAD Downside risks

A plunge lower through support at 1.3091 and close to the better 1.3046/37 area, rejecting last Wednesday’s surge above 1.3120 resistance and Tuesday’s bounce from just above our 1.3037 support (from 1.3046), to shift risks lower for Monday.

The surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for the 1.3046/37 area; break here aims for 1.2998, possibly towards the 1.2957/45 area.
  • But above 1.3105 opens risk up to 1.3160 and 1.3176.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2814.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2725 and 1.2536
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3290 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3386 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3105 1.3160/76** 1.3191** 1.3247* 1.3290***
1.3046/37* 1.2998** 1.2957/45** 1.2917* 1.2891

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad 

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