USDJPY and USDCAD intermediate-term bullish shifts

Chris Lee

  • The USDCAD and USDJPY currency pairs were last reviewed here on 25th February with USDJPY in a range and intermediate-term bearish trend for USDCAD.
  • Since then markets have been erratic, but in the past week, global financial markets have moved to a “risk on” phase, with the US currency falling against most other currencies, but rallying against the Japanese Yen, as the safe haven move has lessened.
  • The USDJPY FX rate has seen a firm rally in this scenario, which has allowed for a push above a key 111.14 resistance point, for a move from an intermediate-term, neutral range theme to an intermediate-term bull tone.
  • For the USDCAD Forex rate, a prior rally during a risk off phase in early March produced a shift to an intermediate-term bullish trend, but the immediate risks are lower, challenging that bull theme.


USDJPY bias stays higher

A Friday prod higher and then a modest setback to prod below minor supports at 111.48/46, but while above 110.98 we hold onto upside pressures from Thursday’s dip and rebound from above our 110.75 and 110.63 supports (from 110.98), to rally though the 111.70 resistance, to aim higher into Monday.

The late February firm rally above key 111.41 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.90 and 112.14; break here aims for 112.64.
  • But below 110.98 opens risk down to 110.75/63, maybe 110.32/23.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.71.

  • Higher targets would be 55 and 115.00
  • What Changes This? Below 109.66 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 108.47 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.90 112.14 112.64* 113.11/18 113.71**
111.21 110.98 110.75/63* 110.32/23** 109.93

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 usdjpy chart

USDCAD risks remain lower

A slightly better rebound Friday after a lacklustre effort Thursday, to just probe above our 1.3368/71 resistance area then quickly to fail at 1.3372, thereby sustaining a negative tone from last week’s notable setback through various supports including the 1.3151/48 area, to keep risks lower for Monday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3283/72; break here aims for 1.3206.
  • But above 1.3372 opens risk up to 1.3417.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3110 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3064 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3372 1.3417 1.3469/74/88* 1.3500 1.3567
1.3283/72* 1.3206 1.3114/10*** 1.3064*** 1.3052/44*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart