USDCAD intermediate-term bearish shift; USDJPY stays neutral

Chris Lee

  • We last looked at the USDCAD and USDJPY currency pairs here our in 4th February article and indicated an intermediate-term bearish trend for USDCAD and a USDJPY range, neutral theme.
  • A shift to more of a global “risk on” scenario since then has reinforced a more positive tone for the Canadian Dollar, assisted by a higher oil price, and has also seen a weakening of the US Dollar, which previously strengthened as a safe haven.
  • This has seen the USDCAD Forex rate reinforce the previously flagged intermediate-term bearish trend.
  • The USDJPY FX rate, however, simply retains an intermediate-term, neutral range theme, but with a slight upside bias.

USDCAD negative theme reinforced

A selloff Friday through 1.3146/36 supports to reject Thursday’s rebound that was capped by the 1.3281/95 area, resuming negative pressures from Wednesday’s selloff through 1.3192 and 1.3168 supports and from the mid-February setback through the February up trendline, to keep risks lower for Monday.

The late January plunge below 1.3157 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish, BUT risk is growing for a shift to neutral above 1.3375.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3124; break here aims for key 1.3064 and maybe towards 1.3052/44.
  • But above 1.3195/3205 opens risk up to 1.3243.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3000.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2912 and 1.2784.
  • What Changes This? Above 13375 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3195/3205 1.3243** 1.3281/95* 1.3340** 1.3375***
1.3124 1.3064* 1.3052/44* 1.3022/11* 1.3000*

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2019-02-25

USDJPY modest upside bias

Once more, a sideways consolidation Friday as seen since mid-February, leaving a slight positive bias from the mid-month bounce off of new 110.23 support and the early February push above key 109.99, to keep risks higher into Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range as 111.41 to 108.47, BUT growing risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 111.41.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.13; break here aims for key 111.41, maybe towards 111.97.
  • But below 110.23 quickly opens risk down towards 109.93 and maybe 109.66, which we would look to try to hold.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.41 to 108.47.

  • Upside Risks: Above 111.41 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 108.47 sees a bear trend to target 107.74, 72/55 and 104.78/56.

Resistance and Support:

111.13 111.41*** 111.97 112.64* 113.11/18
110.23 109.93 109.66* 109.40* 108.85*

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2019-02-25