USDCAD bull trend resuming; USDJPY risks stay higher (despite correction)

Chris Lee

  • USDJPY has seen a significant downside correction in late May, but whilst holding above 108.62, we still see the intermediate-term bull trend intact, and look for a bullish resumption into late May and on into June.


USDCAD Bull bias

A strong advance as we had expected for Friday through 1.2921/25 peaks and 1.2975, building on the Tuesday- Thursday solid bounce from above 1.2725 support (off of 1.2738), leaving risk for a further advance into the US and UK Holidays on Monday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside for 1.2993 and 1.2998/1.3000; above opens risk up to 1.3055, maybe 1.3076.
  • But below 1.2911 aims for 1.2821 and 1.2803 targets.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3347.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2536 shifts the outlook straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.2998/3000** 1.3055* 1.3076 1.3100 1.3125***
1.2911 1.2821 1.2803 1.2738/25** 1.2714

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

USDJPY Downside threats eased, rebound bias

A rebound Friday from above key 108.62 support (from 108.93), easing negative pressures from the Wednesday-Thursday plunge (down through 109.54, 109.39 and 109.12 supports and the up trend line from late March), setting the threat for a further rebound into the US and UK Holidays on Monday.

The latter April push above 107.90 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is now fading for a push below 108.62 for an intermediate-term shift straight to bearish.

For Today:

  • Whilst above 108.93 we see an upside bias for 109.35 and 109.76, maybe towards 110.03.
  • But below 108.93 quickly targets 108.73 and the key 108.62 level, then for 108.52 and even 108.10.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.48.

  • Higher targets would be 113.75 and 114.73 maybe 115.50/63.
  • What Changes This? Below 108.62 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight from bullish to bearish.

Resistance and Support:

109.35 109.76* 110.33* 111.08* 111.40/48***
108.93 108.73* 108.62*** 108.52** 108.10

Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart

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