A global “risk on” tone resuming aiming USDCAD and USDJPY higher

Chris Lee

  • Ongoing recovery gains across the major European and Asian equity averages, alongside positive consolidation activity by US equity indices sustains a “risk on” them for global asset classes.
  • For Forex markets, this “risk on” activity has been hallmarked by US Dollar strength.
  • USDJPY produced an intermediate-term bullish shift above 107.90 in April and aims still higher into May.
  • The USDCAD push through key 1.2819 in April neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend for a range theme (1.2944 to 1.2536), with the threat skewed for a bullish shift.

USDJPY Bull bias resuming

Another significant selloff on Friday as we had expected (and as also seen Thursday) through 108.96 support, but then a strong rebound from the up trend line from late March and from above our key 108.52 level (or a bullish Hammer candlestick), to shift risk back higher Monday.

The latter April push above 107.90 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT below 108.52 would neutralise this bull theme.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 109.33, then 109.75, maybe 110.00/04.
  • But below 108.73 aims back for key 108.52; break here aims for 108.10.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 110.48.

  • Higher targets would be 111.48 and maybe 113.75.
  • What Changes This? Below 108.52 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 106.59 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

109.33 109.75* 110.00/04* 110.29* 110.48**
108.73* 108.52*** 108.10 107.52 106.85

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart

USDCAD Upside risks

Another resilient, but erratic consolidation Friday (as seen from latter April), prodding above the 1.2915 peak, and despite a setback, again holding above the 1.2800/2793 support area, keeping risks higher Monday.

The latter April push through key 1.2819 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and set an intermediate-term range theme (seen as 1.2944 to 1.2536, with risks skewed for a bull shift).

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2917; break here aims for key 1.2944, then 1.2971.
  • But below 2897/2900 (which we would look to try to again hold), sees risks to 1.2741.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2944 to 1.2536.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.2944 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3000, 1.3125 and 1.3347.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2536 sees a bear trend to target 1.2445, 1.2247 and 1.2000.

Resistance and Support:

1.2917 1.2944*** 1.2971 1.3000* 1.3055*
1.2800/2793** 1.2741* 1.2714 1.2629** 1.2581

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

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