- Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties (Italian and EU politics and particularly a looming trade war), global asset classes have shifted back to a “risk on” environment in early June, led by equities rallying.
- In our article published 20th May we highlighted AUDUSD and NZDUSD intermediate-term bear trends, BUT these have been questioned by early June rallies.
- For NZDUSD, the push above .7052 shifted the intermediate-term view to range (.6880 to .7095) BUT with risk for a push above .7095 for an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- For AUDUSD we still see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT the very strong June risk for a shift back to neutral above .7678 and even to bullish above .7813
NZDUSD Still an upside threat to key .7095 resistance
Another high-level consolidation Friday (as also seen Thursday), after Wednesday’s rebound from our .6995/94 support area just above key .7052 resistance, to leave the bias higher for Monday.
The early June push above .7052 shifted the intermediate-term view to a neutral, range (.6880 to .7095) AND leaves risk for a push above .7095 for an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- We see an upside bias for .7060; break here aims for critical .7095, then maybe towards the .7157/62 area.
- But below .6995/94 opens risk down to 6959 and maybe opens risk down towards .6913.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6880 to .7095.
- Upside Risks: Above .7095 sets a bull trend to aim for .7273, .7395 and .7437.
- Downside Risks: Below .6880 sees a bear trend to target .6849, .6676/64 and .6343.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Holding onto a rebound bias and upside threat
A notable dip Friday through support at .7637 and .7592, but holding and rebounding from above .7552 (off of .7558), clinging onto the positive tone from the rally from late May, setting the bias higher into Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT the very strong risk is for a shift back to neutral above .7678 and even to bullish above .7813.
- We see an upside bias for .627 and .7658, maybe critical .7678.
- But below .7558/53 opens risk down to .7513, maybe .7474.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7678 we see a downside risk for .7368/31.
- Lower targets would be .7155/41 and .7000.
- What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7813 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart