Intermediate-term bearish AUDUSD and NZDUSD outlooks

Chris Lee

Author: Chris Lee

Published:
Updated:

  • We previously reviewed  the AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates on 6th May and our intermediate-term bearish views have been reinforced since then.
  • The NZDUSD currency pair has pushed deeper to a further new 2019 low, to leave threat to the downside into June.
  • The AUDUSD Forex rate has continued to push to new multi-month lows, reinforcing the intermediate-term bear trend.
  • However, in the very short-term the bias is for a correction higher for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

AUDUSD immediate risks just stay higher

A better recovery effort Friday-Monday through initial minor resistance at .6915 and to prod just above the better .6935/37 area, PLUS reversing above the down trend line from mid-April, easing bear forces from the May down leg and whilst above .6899 shifting immediate risks higher into Tuesday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .6938; break here aims for .6959 and maybe towards .6986.
  • But below .6899 opens risk down to .6863/62; break here aims for a key level at .6829.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7069 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7206 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6938 .6959* .6986 .7027* .7048**
.6899 .6863/62* .6829** .6800 .6777

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd

NZDUSD bias shifts for a further correction higher

A firm recovery effort Friday-Monday to break above the very significant down trend line from March, plus notable resistance at .6551 (after Thursday’s prod lower to a new cycle low at .6480), and whilst above .6509 switching the bias higher into Tuesday.

The April push below .6716 set an intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6559; break here aims for .6591 maybe towards .6630.
  • But below .6509 opens risk down to .6480 and .6471.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6347 and .6195

  • What Changes This? Above .6682 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6783 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6559 .6591 .6630* .6653** .6679/82****
.6509 .6480/71* .6437 .6402 .6381

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd