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AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay bearish

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  • On 15th April we looked at the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency pairs and a bearish intermediate-term outlook for the NZDUSD Forex rate but upside risks for AUDUSD.
  • Broad US Dollar strength has resumed into early May, which has seen the AUDUSD FX rate push to a new multi-month low, resuming the intermediate-term bear trend.
  • The NZDUSD Forex rate has also pushed lower for a new 2019 low, to leaves risks to the downside into May.

AUDUSD bear theme intact

A significant selloff since the Fed last Wednesday to push below the April swing low at .6986, and despite a rebound Friday a renewed selloff already into Monday sustains negative pressures from the aggressive mid-April plunge (through key .6999 support), to keep risks lower for Monday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .6960; break here quickly aims for .6949, maybe even .6916.
  • But above .7025/29 aims for .7069.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7207 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7025/29 .7069* .7103* .7140/52 .7207***
.6960 .6949* .6916 .6870/67 .6829*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd

NZDUSD negative theme intact

A rebound Friday above .6640, but then a setback this morning through .6606/04 supports and whilst below .6653 we still see negative forces from Wednesday’s push lower after a disappointing New Zealand Employment report AND the Fed, leaving the bias lower Monday.

The April push below .6716 set an intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6598; break here aims for .6578.
  • But above .6679/82 opens risk up to .6724.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6583.

  • Lower targets would be .6347 and .6195
  • What Changes This? Above .6783 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6837 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6653* .6679/82** .6724* .6748* .6782/83***
.6598 .6578 .6542 .6519 .6500**

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd