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GBPUSD aims higher as EURUSD is poised for a bear shift below 1.1300

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  • In our 28th October report on GBPUSD and EURUSD we saw intermediate-term bearish outlooks and risks
  • However, since that report a more positive outlook regarding Brexit has emerged and seen GBPUSD rally, shifting the intermediate-term outlook back to a wider range through 1.3044, but now with the bias skewed towards a more bullish theme, but only triggered above 1.3258.
  • The EURUSD FX rate rebound to start November was lacklustre at best, with the recent renewal of downside forces leaving risks for a bearish intermediate-term signal, below 1.1300.

 

GBPUSD Rebound bias whilst above 1.2949

A notable setback Thursday-Friday through 1.3011 support, but now whilst holding above the 1.2949 we hold onto upside forces from last week’s surge (through the 1.3129/49 resistance area), PLUS the early November surge through our key 1.3044 level, to leave the bias higher Monday.

The early November push above 1.3044 set an intermediate-term range seen as 1.2964 to 1.3258 (shifting from bearish), BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.3258.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3005, then maybe 13055 and 1.3085; break here could even aim for 1.3129.
  • But below 1.2957/49 sees 1.2905 and even 1.2849

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2964 to 1.3258.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3258 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3299, 1.3473 and 1.3608.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2964 sees a bear trend to target 1.2661 and 1.2500.

Resistance and Support:

1.3005 1.3055* 1.3085 1.3129* 1.3175*
1.2957/49** 1.2905 1.2849* 1.2763 1.2731

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD Risks stay lower

A further setback Friday just below 1.1335 support after last week’s plunge from 1.1500 through 1.1393 and 1.1353 supports, reinforcing short-term bear forces and keeping a downside bias into Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range NOW as 1.1621 to 1.1300, BUT NOW with risk for an intermediate-term bearish shift below 1.1300.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1318; break here aims for key 1300, then maybe 1.1272 and 1.1259.
  • But above 1.1369 opens risk up towards 1.1427 and 1.1447.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1621 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1621 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1815, 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1369 1.427* 1.1447* 1.1500 1.1507
1.1315 1.1300*** 1.1272 1.1259 1.1231

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart