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EURUSD and GBPUSD in intermediate-term ranges, bullish skewed risks

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  • When last looking at GBPUSD and EURUSD we highlighted the ongoing intermediate-term bearish trend for GBPUSD and an EURUSD shift to a broader range.
  • Since then, the GBPUSD Forex rate pushed above 1.3043 to neutralise the bearish intermediate-term trend for a range, BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish shift (requiring a push through 1.3213).
  • The EURUSD currency is still within an intermediate-term neutral range, we see defined as 1.1791 to 1.1300, again though with the bias towards an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.1791.

 

GBPUSD Threat remains to key 1.3213

A Friday dip through support at 1.3066, but whilst above 1.3025 we still see upside forces from the earlier September surge above key 1.3043 resistance, to keep risks higher for Monday.

The early September probe above key 1.3043 resistances neutralised the intermediate-term bear theme, for an intermediate-term range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213, with risks skewed towards a bullish break.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3076; break here aims towards 1.3144 and 1.3173, maybe key 1.3213.
  • But below 1.3025 opens risk down to 1.2979, even 1.2919.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2784 to 1.3213.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3213 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3363, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2784 sees a bear trend to target 1.2661, 1.2589, 1.2366, maybe towards 1.2109.

Resistance and Support:

1.3076 1.3144* 1.3173* 1.3213*** 1.3241
1.3025* 1.2979** 1.2919* 1.2895/94** 1.2811

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

EURUSD Upside risks intact

Initially a Friday push higher to build on Thursday break above 1.1659 peak and also 1.1690 resistance, and despite an intraday setback, whilst Aveo 1.1607 we still see a recovery theme to keep the immediate risks higher for Monday.

The latter August push above 1.1628 neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and set an intermediate-term range theme, seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300 (with risks skewed towards a bullish break above 1.1791).

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1722 and 1.1733; break here aims for the 1.1746/51/60 peaks and then key 1.1791, maybe even towards 1.1851.
  • But below 1.1607 aims for 1.1564 and maybe opens risk down to 1.1525.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1791 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1134, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1722/33** 1.1746/51/60** 1.1791*** 1.1851** 1.1903
1.1607 1.1564 1.1525** 1.1464** 1.1393*

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart