EURUSD shift to bearish and back to neutral; GBPUSD stays bearish

Chris Lee

  • In our last GBPUSD and EURUSD article we highlighted an ongoing intermediate-term bearish trend for GBPUSD (which remains intact) and a bearish shift risk for EURUSD
  • EURUSD has broken to the downside through 1.1507 in early August for an intermediate-term bear shift, but the rebound from mid-month above 1.1628 has set the intermediate-term view back to neutral.
  • GBPUSD has extended the intermediate-term bear trend through August and despite a rebound effort from mid-month, whilst below 1.3043 we see the bearish intermediate-term view as intact.


EURUSD Intermediate-term shift back to neutral

The Friday probe above 1.1628 sets an intermediate-term range theme we see as 1.1791 to 1.1300.

Furthermore, this positive price action keeps the bias higher Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1656 and maybe towards 1.1717.
  • But below 1.1577 aims for 1.1528 and opens risk down to 11464.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1791 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1791 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1134, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1628*** 1.1656 1.1717 1.1746/51/60 1.1791***
1.1577 1.1528 1.1464** 1.1393* 1.1355

4 Hour Chart


GBPUSD Downside bias

Despite a rebound effort on Friday, whilst capped by 1.2881 we still see negative forces from Thursday’s significant selloff (through 1.2844 and to probe 1.2810 supports), keeping the bias lower Monday.

The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2797; break here aims for 1.2727.
  • But above 1.2881 quickly opens risk up to 1.2909 and maybe 1.2937.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2589, 1.2366, maybe towards 1.2109.

  • What Changes This? Above 1.3213 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and only above 1.3363 to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.2881 1.2909 1.2937* 1.2960** 1.3000**
1.2797 1.2727* 1.2696* 1.2661** 1.2633

4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD chart

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