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AUDUSD and NZDUSD intermediate-term bullish, but immediate risks lower

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  • Ort last exploration of the AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot Forex rates on 17th December highlighted downside pressures both currency pairs.
  • A “flash crash” to start the 2019 was, however followed up by a rapid and extremely strong rebound, then a more gradual advance through to mid-January by both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars versus the US currency.
  • The AUDUSD currency pair shifted the intermediate-term outlook back to bullish, above key .7149, whilst the NZDUSD Forex saw a bullish intermediate-term signal through .6790.
  • In the very near term, however, both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are susceptible to downside correction risks.

 

AUDUSD immediate bias turning negative

A more negative consolidation tone developing through mid-January having previously pushed just below .7168 and .7159 initial supports, easing upside forces from the earlier January push up above the .7204 swing high from December, shifting risks lower into Monday.

The early January push above key .7149 set an intermediate-term bullish trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .7144; break here quickly aims for .7132 and .7114/07.
  • But above .7212 targets .7235 and .7247, then maybe opens risk up to .7276.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .7247.

  • Higher targets would be .7394 and .7500.
  • What Changes This? Below .7024 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through .6916 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7212 .7235 .7247* .7276* .7301*
.7144 .7132 .7114/07** .7078 .7044**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD very short-term bias shifts lower

A setback Friday from below .6790 resistance (from .6787) to reinforce Thursday’s deeper selloff through the .6753/48 support are, for now rejecting positive tone from the earlier January push up through the key .6790 resistance level, flipping risks lower into Monday.

The strong early January rally through .6790 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6726; break here aims for .6705 and opens risk down to .6669.
  • But above .6787/90 opens risk up to .6844/49.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for .6880.

  • Higher targets would be .6969 and .7000.
  • What Changes This? Below .6626/12 shifts the outlook straight to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6787/90* .6844/49* .6858 .6880/93** .6912*
.6726 * .6705** .6669** .6626/12*** .6600

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart