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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends questioned

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  • In our last look at AUDUSD and NZDUSD here on 3rd September we highlighted renewed intermediate-term bear trends.
  • A “risk on” environment into the second half of September, however, has seen a weakening of the US Dollar and also a strengthening of “risk” currencies, including AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
  • AUDUSD above .7382 and NZDUSD .6721 would see intermediate-term bullish shifts.

 

AUDUSD Bull threat to key .7382

Yet again a prod higher Friday to build on the solid advance seen all last week since the rebound from support at .7139 AND with a reversal above down trend line from early August, to keep risks higher Monday (after a likely early dip).

We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is growing for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .7382.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7304 and .7315; break here aims for .7362, possibly even towards key .7382.
  • But below .7235 targets .7187 and maybe aims for .7139.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .7382 we see a downside risk for .7000.

  • Lower targets would be .6825 and maybe towards .6500
  • What Changes This? Above .7382 shifts the intermediate-term view straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7304 .7315** .7362** .7382*** .7412
.7235 .7187 .7139** .7083* .7038

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD Bull threat to key .6721

A prod higher Friday above .6681 and .6696 resistances to build on Thursday’s surge higher (after strong NZD GDP data) above the down trend line from late July, to keep risks higher Monday (after a likely early dip).

We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is mounting for an intermediate-term shift straight to bullish above .6721.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6699 then for key .6721 and maybe then the .6759/66 area.
  • But below .6593 targets .6559 and maybe opens risk down to .6535.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6721 we see a downside risk for .6347.

  • Lower targets would be .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .67121 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6699 .6721*** .6759/66* .6798 .6835**
.6644 .6593* .6559* .6535** .6497*

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd