AUDUSD and NZDUSD intermediate-term bear trends intact

Chris Lee

  • In our last review here on 13th August regarding AUDUSD and NZDUSD we highlighted renewed bearish intermediate-term trends.
  • Since then, a “risk on” and subsequent “risk off” scenario has seen US Dollar weakness and renewed strength questioning these bear trends and then seeing theme re-energise.
  • The AUDUSD plunge through the cycle low at .7199 has renewed the intermediate-term bear theme, whilst the NZDUSD selloff back from below key .6759/66 resistance sustains the downside threat into September.


Intermediate-term bear trend resumes

A plunge lower Friday through .7234 AND then the key August cycle low at .7199, to resume the intermediate-term bearish shift.

Furthermore, the negative price action sets the bias lower for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7173; break here aims for .7141 and .7106.
  • But above .7235 opens risk up to .7269, maybe towards .7315.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7155/41.

  • Lower targets would be .7000, .6825 and maybe towards .6500
  • What Changes This? Above .7362 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7453 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7235 .7269 .7315 .7362* .7382**
.7173 .7155/41** .7106** .7038 .7000*

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-09-03 


Downside risks

Another significant selloff Friday through notable support at .6618 for a short-term Double Top type pattern and into the .6607/00 area, reinforcing Thursday’s plunge (through the .6668 support), to keep the bias lower into Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend, but with risk FADING for a shift straight to bullish above the .6759/66 area.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through .6605/00, towards .6567, maybe the key low at .6541.
  • But above .6669 targets .6686 and opens risk up to .6721.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6759/66 we see a downside risk for .6500.

  • Lower targets would be .6347, .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .6759/66 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6669 .6686 .6721** .6759/66*** .6798
.6605/00* .6567 .6541** .6523 .6500*

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-09-03

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