*Originally published on 15/06/2021
- In our last article here on USDJPY and USDCAD from 9th July we highlighted a positive tone for the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, but negative risks versus the Canadian Dollar.
- USDJPY has seen a correction lower, but whilst holding above the 110.25 level we still maintain an intermediate-term bullish view.
- For USDCAD, however, we warned of a potentially more negative tone and the surrender of the key 1.3063/61 area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
Immediate upside bias whilst above new 110.57 support
A solid Friday consolidation, after Thursday’s probe below the notable 110.74/68 support area and then rebound from new support at 110.57, and whilst holding here to keep risks higher Monday.
The early July push above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.
- We see a rebound bias higher for 111.54 and 111.85/90; break here maybe aims for 112.55/60.
- But below 110.57 opens risk down to key 110.28/25.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.39/55.
- Higher targets would be 114.73, 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
- What Changes This? Below 110.25 shifts the outlook back to neutral; only through 109.35 signals for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour Chart
Risks still lower
A setback Friday, dismissing Thursday’s rebound effort, and whilst capped by 1.3135 resistance we still see negative pressures from the latter July selloff through the key 1.3063/61area (that completed a significant intermediate-term topping pattern) to keep risks lower Monday.
The surrender of the key 1.3063/61area shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
- Whilst below 1.3135 we see a downside bias for 1.3020; break here quickly aims for 1.3000, maybe 1.2945.
- But above 1.3135 opens risk up to 1.3191.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2814.
- Lower targets would be 1.2725 and 1.2536
- What Changes This? Above 1.3290 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3386 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour Chart
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