The euro has had its fair share of problems on the price charts in recent weeks – and the overall picture for the currency appears to suggest that a downtrend is setting in. The currency saw its highest point in 2020 as recently as August, when it reached the 1.2011 point on the price charts. However, strategists are now predicting that the most likely outcome for the currency going forward appears to be a downward one. The pair’s closer timeframe moving averages are currently hovering well under the crucial one, which is the 200-day version.
Other indicators of momentum, such as the moving average convergence/divergence tracker, are also showing signs of underlying bearish bias. According to analysts, a key figure for the currency is likely to be the 1.18 point. This is an important position for the currency because it is a whole number, and therefore could have striking effects on trade behaviour and crowd movement. If the euro cannot reach this key point in its dollar pair at some stage soon, it is considered likely by analysts that the next stage for the currency could be 1.1626. From there, however, it could even go below 1.15. Currently, though, the currency pair is just above the 1.17 level. It managed to surge beyond this level following speculation that US President Donald Trump, who is currently being treated in hospital for coronavirus, may be about to be discharged.
Moving away from the price charts and headline news, both of these currencies have a busy week coming up on the economic calendar. On Monday, there will be a speech from the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann. This will take place at 12pm GMT. A range of important data releases will come out of the US from 1:45pm onwards. A purchasing managers’ index from Markit for September will be released then, and is due to show no change from its previous position of 54.6. An employment index release for September from ISM will be out at 2pm GMT. This is due to show a change from 47.9 to 58.1. Looking ahead to tomorrow, a meeting of European finance ministers is set to take place all day.
However, the main event in Europe will be a speech from Christine Lagarde, who serves as the President of the European Central Bank. This is due to take place at 1pm GMT. It will be followed at 2:40pm GMT by a speech from Jerome Powell, who heads up the Federal Reserve in the US – making Tuesday a key day for EUR/USD monetary policy watchers. However, attention will flick back to Europe later in the day when Philip R. Lane, who serves on the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, makes a speech. This is due to take place at 3:30pm GMT.
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