Can GBP/USD reach 1.3268 in today’s forex trading?

The British pound has seen some significant gains in the foreign exchange markets recently, and on Thursday it managed to secure some advances.

Even though it later lost these and went back to its previous lower points, its overall outlook appears good.

According to some strategists, it is unlikely to reach its next potential high point of 1.3268 today.

Some said that there was not much chance of the currency dipping below the key whole number, psychologically significant level of 1.3000.

In recent weeks, meanwhile, there has been some suggestion that British negotiators might be able to secure a trade deal with the EU soon.

Some positive noises were heard from the Irish government earlier in the week, for example.

However, strategists are now cautioning pound traders away from placing too much faith in this potential outcome.

Some believe that the markets on the whole are failing to acknowledge the possibility of trade negotiations breaking down, and that the current prices do not reflect the possibility of this happening.

Other fundamental events that are likely to affect the pound soon include the recent announcement of purchasing managers’ index data.

Early figures from August suggest that commercial organisations in Britain are now speeding up in terms of trading.

Figures from IHS Markit showed that on a composite level, the country’s index now hovered at around 60.3.

This was much higher than both its previous level of 57.0 and the predicted level for August, which was not much higher at 57.1.

Crucially, these figures covered both the service industry and the world of manufacturing – suggesting that the underlying fundamentals for the pound are looking good.

In terms of the economic calendar, meanwhile, next week contains a number of important fixtures for the currency.

On Tuesday morning at 10am GMT, there will be a Distributive Trades Survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

This will shed some light on the retail industry in the country, and give some near-term indications of what is likely to play out.

On Wednesday, there will be a speech from one of the country’s senior central bankers.

It will come from Andrew Haldane, who is the chief economist of the Bank of England – and also a member of its crucial Monetary Policy Committee.

This is expected to occur at 4pm GMT.

By Thursday, however, events affecting this pair could well be dollar-focused rather than pound-focused thanks to a major event.

The Jackson Hole Symposium, which takes place in the US, will kick off on this day and may herald some changes for the dollar.

This event sees senior central bank, government and finance figures from across the world gather together.

There will, for example, be a speech from Jerome Powell – who is the chair of the US Federal Reserve – at 2pm GMT.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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