AUD/USD to be watched as employment rates come out

The Australian dollar is likely to be put firmly in the spotlight in the forex trading markets on Thursday as a series of employment-related statistics are released.

The day will kick off in the GMT timezone with a number of Antipodean labour market figures, including an overall unemployment rate release at 1:30am GMT.

This will cover the month of June and is likely to show a change from 7.1% to 7.4%.

A participation rate release will also come out during that time slot, and is set to show a change across the month of June from 62.9% to 63.6%.

Away from labour market figures, meanwhile, a business confidence release for Q2 2020 will also be out at 1:30am GMT.

This figure will come from the National Australia Bank, though at present there is no clear forecast of what it might reveal.

Next up over the day will be some figures from China.

Gross domestic product figures for Q2 2020 will be out at 2am GMT.

These are expected to show a huge leap out of negative territory and into positive, with a quarter-on-quarter move from -9.8% to +9.6% on the cards.

Traders of the offshore Chinese yuan are likely to keep a close eye on these releases, as they will provide a strong indication of whether or not the country’s economy has managed to come out of the economic hit that it took as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Information on Chinese retail sales for June will also be out at 2am GMT.

These are again set to show an improvement, though this will be measured year on year.

Figures are expected to show a change from -2.8% to +0.3%.

By morning in the GMT timezone, however, attention will have shifted across the world to Britain.

Pound traders who are concerned at the apparent lack of speed with which the country’s economy is recovering from the pandemic will no doubt keep an eye on these.

However, some less-than-upbeat figures are forecast during this round of releases.

The overall unemployment rate for the three months to May, for example, is due out at 6am GMT, and is expected to show a rise from 3.9% to 4.2%.

Average earnings growth for the month of May (excluding bonus figures), meanwhile, are set to show a dip from 1.7% to 0.5%.

The single European currency will move into the limelight as the lunchtime slot approaches, with the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to release its interest rate decision at 11:45am GMT.

This is due to remain unchanged from its previous position of 0% – with the ECB therefore seen as unlikely to be considering negative territory at least in the headline interest rates.

The ECB’s deposit rates, meanwhile, are set to remain firm again – this time at -0.5%.

Traders who are concerned about potential future moves from the ECB, however, will no doubt tune into its monetary policy statement – and accompanying press conference – at 12:30pm GMT.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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