AUD/USD in the 0.7350 Region, Jobs Data in the Spotlight

Nigel Frith
Front of the Reserve Bank of Australia building

Quick Summary:

  • Australian employment figures more buoyant than forecast
  • AUD/USD hovering around 0.7350
  • Q2 2020 figures due in from the US at the end of the week
  • Upcoming speech from RBA one to watch

The Australian dollar has performed well on the whole in recent weeks despite some temporary downturns. The main fuel for its rises this week was the announcement that the labour market in recession-hit Australia was faring well. Employment change levels were recorded at 111,000, which was a far cry from the pessimistic figures that economists had forecast. Overall, the percentage unemployment level was listed at 6.8% – which was way under the forecasted rate of 7.7%. Following this, the AUD/USD pair was seen on Thursday floating around the 0.7350 region. Yet despite this performance and the positive economic news, strategists identified some concerns for the currency upon taking a broader view.

As of Thursday, the pair was struggling to get above the 0.74 level on the price charts. This resistance level is proving particularly stubborn for the pair, and it is expected to prove difficult for the currency to breach it soon. The pair also experienced a blip earlier in the week when the US Federal Reserve announced a positive view of the American economy’s prospects. This suggests that while the Aussie dollar can perform on its own merits, it is also running the risk of sensitivity to the US dollar as the pandemic recovery continues.

Analysts also pointed out that the 50-day exponential moving average appeared to be storing up trouble. It has now passed the 0.71 mark on a downward trend, and it could well soon move towards the 0.70 point. Analysts did caution, however, that there may be no need to fear a sell-off until that 0.70 point was reached.

Looking ahead to the economic calendar for the coming week, there are several important events on the cards for the AUD/USD pair. On Friday, there will be a release from the US looking at current account information for Q2 2020. This will come out at 12:30pm GMT. On Monday, meanwhile, the US economy will be back in the spotlight when the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) will be released by the Chicago branch of the central bank. This will shine some light on the region’s inflation-related situation, and will also look at economic conditions more widely. This is due to be released at 12:30pm GMT.

The Australian dollar may be under some pressure at 12:30am GMT on Tuesday of next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Guy Debelle makes a speech. Debelle is the Assistant Governor for Financial Markets at the Bank. Further central banking action will take place later in the day when the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell speaks at 2pm GMT. In the same time slot, there will be an existing home sales release for August, again out of the US. This is due to show a slight rise from 5,860,000 to 5,950,000.

Nigel Frith

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