USDJPY shifts bullish as USDCAD reinforces the intermediate-term bear trend

Chris Lee

  • We last highlighted USDJPY and USDCAD intermediate-term bearish themes in our 10th September article.
  • However, a global asset class shift towards “risk on” since then has seen USDJPY shift to bullish, as we had indicated, with a break above 112.15.
  • The positive resolution of NAFTA talks has seen USDCAD plunge lower to re-energize the intermediate-term bearish trend.


USDJPY Bull trend further energized

A surge higher Thursday and again Friday (after a dip Wednesday post-FOMC) and having overcome the key 113.14/18 multi-month cycle peaks, we see risks still higher Monday.

The mid-September push above here 112.15 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 113.93, then for 114.07, maybe 114.44.
  • But below 113.29 aims for 112.77/75 and maybe targets 112.53.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 114.73.

  • Higher targets would be 115.63 and 118.65
  • What Changes This? Below 111.64 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 110.36 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

113.71/75 114.07 114.44 114.73*** 115.00
113.29 112.77/75* 112.53** 112.26* 111.85

4 Hour USDJPY Chart 


USDCAD Bear theme re-energizes

A plunge lower Friday through supports at 1.2990 and 1.2941, then this mooring already below key 1.2880 plus 1.2855 and to probe 1.2814, completely rejecting last Thursday’s tentative probe just above the 1.3064/78 resistance area, re-energizing negative pressures from the September selloff, keeping risks lower Monday.

We see an intermediate-term bearish theme.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2811 then towards 1.2738 and 1.2725, maybe even closer to 1.2714
  • But above 1.2888 opens risk to 1.2943 and maybe targets 1.3020.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below 1.3226 we see a downside risk for 1.2725.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2536, 1.2250 and 1.2062/00
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3226 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight bullish.

Resistance and Support:

1.2888 1.2943 1.3020 1.3082** 1.3131
1.2811 1.2738** 1.2725*** 1.2714 1.2629*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart