USDJPY risks move lower, whilst USDCAD stays positive

Chris Lee

  • A weaker US Dollar into mid-November against the Euro, GB Pound, but here we look at the weakness against the Japanese Yen.
  • USDJPY aims lower after a Head & Shoulders topping pattern.
  • However, the US$ retains a positive tone within the Dollar bloc, against the AUD, NZD and CAD, leaving the risks for USDCAD higher.
  • USDCAD retains its bullish recovery bias, reinforced back in late October, with the rally in the wake of the Bank of Canada Meeting through a key resistance level, 1.2778.

USDCAD Upside risk

An even more erratic tone Friday as also seen Thursday, but probing above 1.2790 into the 1.2820/35 resistance area, and whilst holding above 1.2696 support, we see upside pressures and the bias higher Monday.

The late October surge after the Bank of Canada Meeting above key resistance at 1.2778

shifted the intermediate term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • Whilst holding above 1.2696 we see an upside bias for 1.2824/35; break here aims for 1.2915/17.
  • But below 1.2696 opens risk down to 1.2662 and 1.2632.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3015.
  • Above here targets 1.3347 and 1.3550.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2429 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2194.

Resistance and Support:

1.2824/35** 1.2915/17** 1.2930/33 1.3000/15** 1.3055
1.2696 1.2662* 1.2632** 1.2609* 1.2567

4 Hour USDCAD Chart


USDJPY Head & Shoulders Top and bearish threat

A significant sell off Friday as expected through 112.46 and 112.01 supports, reinforcing negative pressures from last Wednesday’s plunge through the key 112.93 foundation, keeping risks lower Monday.

The forceful mid-November push below 112.93 confirmed a multi-week Head & Shoulders Top pattern and an intermediate-term shift from bullish to neutral, BUT growing threat is for surrender of 111.63 for a still bigger top and a bearish intermediate-term shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias to 111.94; break here quickly aims for critical 111.63, then to 111.45 and 111.10.
  • But above the 112.69/72 area opens risk up to 113.33.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 111.63 and 114.73.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Downside: Below 111.63 sees risk lower for 110.00, 109.53 and maybe 107.29.
  • Upside: Above 114.73 aims higher for 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.

Resistance and Support:

112.69/72 113.33** 113.91** 114.34* 114.73***
111.91 111.63*** 111.45 111.10* 110.75

4 Hour USDJPY Chart