USDJPY bullish shift (but correcting lower); USDCAD bull trend reinforced

Steve Miley

  • On 8th April we last looked at the USDCAD and USDJPY currency pairs here and highlighted a bullish shift threat for USDJPY and a still bullish, intermediate-term outlook for USDCAD.
  • Since then, latter April has seen broad US Dollar strength, even with global equity markets in “risk on” mode, with the US data continuing to stay strong and drive both the US currency and global equity markets higher.
  • The USDJPY Forex rate has been cautious in this scenario but has pushed above 112.14.to a new 20198 high, signalling an intermediate-term bullish tone, but recent losses into late April have indicated an immediate bias lower.
  • The USDCAD FX rate has resumed an upward path through various resistances, which has re-energised the intermediate-term bull theme.

USDJPY immediate risks lower

A rebound failure Friday down from just above 111.90 resistance (from 112.03), after Thursday’s push higher (above 112.17) then a plunge down through our 111.64/55 support area and the up trend line from mid-March, to keep the bias lower Monday.

The mid-April prod above 112.14 was enough to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 111.36; break here aims for 110.81/80.
  • But above 112.03 opens risk up to 112.40.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.71.

  • Higher targets would be 114.55 and 115.00.
  • What Changes This? Below 110.81 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 109.66 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

112.03 112.40* 112.64* 113.07 113.53
111.36 110.81/80* 110.51 110.00/109.99* 109.69/66***

4 Hour USDJPY Chart


USDCAD short-term bull theme intact

A setback Friday but holding above 1.3431 initial support, to maintain upside forces from last push up through resistances at 1.3469/74/88, 1.3446/49 and 1.3396/1.3403, to aim higher for Monday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3521; break here aims for 1.3567 maybe towards 1.3618.
  • But below 1.3431 opens risk down to 1.3396.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3246 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3110 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3521 1.3567 1.3618* 1.3665** 1.3700/03
1.3431 1.3396 1.3331 1.3270* 1.3246***

4 Hour USDCAD Chart