Despite a USD rebound versus many G10 currencies over the past week, USDCAD and USDJPY have maintained their bearish outlooks that have been evident since the US$ plunge after the Friday 3rd June US Employment report.
The reinforces bearish intermediate-term trend for both USDCAD and USDJPY into and through mid-June.
Despite a rebound Thursday-Friday (to probe above modest resistance at 1.2767), a stall ahead of 1.2804 maintains negative June pressures and more recently from the push below 1.2695 and 1.2667 support, to keep the bias lower Monday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.265751; break here aims for 1.2590 and 1.2507.
- But above 1.2804 aims for 1.2839 and maybe 1.2881.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the intermediate-term outlook was signalled below 1.3360.
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2304.
- Below here targets 1.2127 and 1.2000.
What Changes This? Above 1.3218 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3296.
Daily USDCAD Chart
A modest rebound effort Friday, but capped by a firm barrier at 107.40 (from 107.26) to leave negative pressures from the setback last week to probe into the 106.42/22 support area from May and from the sell off on Friday 3rd June (post-US Employment report), to keep a negative bias Monday.
- We see a downside bias for 106.53 and 106.24/22; break here aims for the cycle low at 105.51 and maybe key long-term support from 2014 at 105.20.
- But above 107.26 and 107.40 aims for 107.90, which we would look to try to cap.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: The previous plunge below 109.22 support shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
- Whilst below 111.89 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 105.51 and 105.20.
- Below here aims for long term targets at 102.20, 100.75/71 and maybe even 100.00.
What Changes This? Above 111.89 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 113.80.
Daily USDJPY Chart