USDCAD positive within a bull trend; USDJPY threatens a bullish shift

Chris Lee

  • We previously reviewed the USDCAD and USDJPY Forex rates here on 18th March with USDCAD in an intermediate-term bull trend (though with the bias lower) and USDJPY just switching to an intermediate-term bull trend.
  • The USDCAD currency pair has been in an erratic consolidation phase since then, torn between a solid US Dollar as the US economy appears to stay on a strong course, whilst a rising Oil price tries to buoy the Canadian Dollar.
  • The net impact is for a positive USDCAD tone on a very short-term basis within the framework of an intermediate-term bull trend.
  • The USDJPY FX rate has moved back to an intermediate-term range theme we define as 109.69/66 to 112.14, though we see mounting threat for an intermediate-term switch to bullish on a break through 112.14.

USDCAD Risks higher

A firm advance Friday through the US and Canadian Employment reports, through notable 1.3375 resistance, for now rejecting negative pressures from the early April selloff, switching risks higher for Monday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is growing for a shift back to neutral below 1/3246

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3403; break here aims for 1.3446/49 maybe towards 1.3469.
  • But below 1.3341 opens risk down to 1.3293/86

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3246 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3110 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3403 1.3446/49* 1.3469/74/88* 1.3500 1.3567
1.3341 1.3293/86* 1.3246*** 1.3206 1.3154

4 Hour USDCAD Chart


USDJPY Another prod higher leaves bull threat to 112.14

Yet again, another minor prod higher Thursday to 111.82, to build on the early April firm push up through 110.95/96 resistances, plus the late March dip and rebound from 110.00/109.99 supports, to keep the bias higher Monday.

We now see an intermediate-term range as 109.69/66 to 112.14, BUT with risk growing for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 112.14.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.82/90; break here aims for key 112.14, maybe 112.64.
  • But below 111.31 aims for 111.18 and 110.80 then maybe opens risk down to 110.51.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 109.69/66 to 112.14.

  • Upside Risks: Above 112.14 sets a bull trend to aim for 113.71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 109.69/66 sees a bear trend to target 108.47, 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00.

Resistance and Support:

111.82/90* 112.14*** 112.64* 113.07 113.42
111.31 111.18 110.80 110.51 110.00/109.99*

4 Hour USDJPY Chart