USDCAD bullish shift, USDJPY now in a broader range

Chris Lee

  • In our last USDJPY and USDCAD reports here on 22nd October we highlighted risks for the intermediate-term negative trends to shift from bearish to neutral, possibly even to bullish.
  • The subsequent USDCAD advance to push above 1.3226 has shifted the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
  • For USDJPY the push up through 39 has switched the intermediate-term outlook to a broader, neutral, range.

USDCAD Immediate risk switches lower

A selloff Friday through 1.3136 support and the up trend line from early October, for now easing upside pressures from last week’s push up to another new recovery high through the key swing high from September at 1.3226, to shift risks lower Monday.

The early November probe above 1.3226 set an intermediate-term bull tone.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3123; break here aims for 1.3084 and maybe 1.3052/44.
  • But above 1.3186/90 opens risk up to 1.3238/39.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3386.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3777 and 1.4000/17.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2966 shifts the outlook back to neutral and the quickly through 1.2912 sees a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3186/90* 1.3238/39 1.3264* 1.3290** 1.3351
1.3123 1.3084** 1.3052/44** 1.3022/11* 1.3000*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad chart

USDJPY Risks shift lower

A significant selloff on Friday through notable 112.96 swing support to reinforce last Wednesday’s surrender of support at 113.56/51, rejecting very short-term bull forces, to flip the bias lower Monday.

The late October push above 112.89 set an intermediate-term range theme defined as 111.35 to 114.55, BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish shift above 114.55.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through 112.82 for 112.53; break here aims for 112.27, maybe towards 111.82.
  • But above 113.36 opens risk up to 113.68, maybe 114.00.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.35 to 114.55.

  • Upside Risks: Above 114.55 sets a bull trend to aim for 115.50/63, 118.65 and 120.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 111.35 sees a bear trend to target 110.36 and 109.74.
  • back to neutral; above 114.55 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

113.36 113.68* 114.00 114.21** 114.55***
112.82 112.53* 112.27* 111.82** 111.51

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

 usdjpy chart