USD Cautious, but Firm versus CAD and JPY

Chris Lee

The US dollar has displayed a more hesitant tone versus the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen into early November, primarily a reflection of overall US dollar correction losses in reaction to the setback in US (and global) equity indices.

USDCAD has maintained a resilient theme, holding at the top end of the recent recovery trend high. USDJPY has suffered corrective losses, but previous gains in October maintain a bullish tone into November.


A spike higher on Friday out of the solid consolidation range that has been evident through early November, and despite the intraday setback, minor support at 1.3350 remained intact, to leave the risk for further upside challenges into Monday.

The extremely aggressive upside follow-through rally Friday through the 1.3314 cycle high has re-energized the intermediate-term bull tone (previously signalled in October above 1.3296).

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3430, then 1.3465, maybe up through 1.3500 to aim for 1.3545.
  • But below 1.3350 targets 1.3312, then aims for 1.3274, maybe opens risk down to 1.3230.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3405 and 1.3576/87.
  • Above here targets 1.3838/59 and 1.4000/17.

What Changes This? Below 1.2996 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2651.

Daily USDCAD Chart



A low level consolidation Friday after a plunge lower in early November (back from ahead of chart and retracement targets at 105.62/75), down through 103.14 and 102.77/59 supports, to keep the immediate risks lower Monday.

Although, the mid-October break above key resistance at 104.32, confirmed a Double Bottom pattern and shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bullish, a move back below 101.62 would see a shift back to neutral.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 102.54; break here aims for 102.00 (maybe key 101.62).
  • But above 103.52 opens risk up to 104.61.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 105.62.
  • Above here targets 107.49 and 109.26.

What Changes This? Below 101.62 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 100.07.

Daily USDJPY Chart