- The US Dollar produce positive gains after the early October US Employment report, despite the far lower than anticipated NFP data, buoyed by higher than expected average hourly earnings.
- This keeps the risk for a continuing strengthening for the US currency into October as seen from September with a more hawkish tone from the FOMC and Fed speakers.
- For USDJPY and USDCAD this leaves risk for further challenges to resistance.
USDJPY – Upside threat
A spike higher Friday through resistance at 113.26 reinforcing the early October solid consolidation, and despite the intraday setback whilst still holding above the 112.23/13 support area, we see risk higher again for Monday.
Furthermore, the latter September push through 112.20 produced a bullish shift in the intermediate-term outlook and indicates upside risk into October.
l We see an upside bias for 113.44; break here aims for 113.58, then maybe 113.74.
l But below the 112.23/13 area opens risk down to 111.45, maybe down to 111.10.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 114.50
l Above here targets 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
What Changes This? Below 111.88 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 111.10.
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
USDCAD – Upside threats
A dip lower seen as corrective on Friday, but whilst holding above 1.2500 we see a rebound threat into Monday.
Furthermore, risk is still growing for a shift in the intermediate-term bearish view to neutral, but only above 1.2663, And even as high as 1.2778, which would see an intermediate term bullish switch.
l We see an upside bias back up to 1.2599, maybe as high as our key level at 1.2663, even 1.2691.
l But below 1.2500 opens risk down to 1.2465 .
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l Whilst below 1.2663, we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to targets 1.2000 and 1.1919.
What Changes This? Above 1.2663 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2778.
Daily USDCAD Chart