- The US Dollar has exhibited a more positive tone from early September across most major G10 currencies (expect the very strong GB Pound).
- Given the move away from a “risk off” environment, a strong USD rally against the Japanese Yen has seen USDJPY a shift from an intermediate term bearish trend to a broader range environment (but with we higher).
- For USDCAD, we simply look for a corrective rebound through mid-September.
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USDJPY – Bullish threat
An erratic, but solid Friday for a bullish outside daily pattern, rejecting the potentially negative Shooting Star Thursday with a new recovery high and setting the risks higher again Monday.
The September push above 111.05 neutralised the previous bearish intermediate-term view and sees a range theme for September, BUT with growing risk for a push through 112.20 for a bullish outlook.
l We see an upside bias for 111.33; break here aims for 111.71 maybe key 112.20.
l But below 110.32 opens risk down to 109.53, maybe towards 109.21.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 112.20 and 108.15.
Range Breakout Challenge
l Upside: Above 112.20 aims higher for 114.50 and 115.50/63.
l Downside: Below 108.15 sees risk lower for 107.19 and 105.99.
Daily USDJPY Chart
USDCAD – Upside correction bias
A dip and a rebound on Friday from just below initial support at 1.2128 (from 1.2116), sustaining the rebound bias from the Wednesday-Thursday bounce above resistance at 1.2191, keeping an upside correction bias for Monday.
However, the early September negative price action reinforced the intermediate term bearish theme.
l We see an upside bias for 1.2244; break here aims for 1.2332.
l But below 1.2116 opens risk down to 1.2060.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to targets 1.2000 and 1.1919.
What Changes This? Above 1.2778 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3015.
4 Hour USDCAD Chart