- The US Dollar continues to weaken across G10 currencies.
- For USDJPY we see risk lower through a key level at 110.91, which would neutralise the intermediate term bullish tone for an intermediate-term range theme.
- For USDCAD the bearish trend remains very much intact with threat to a key cycle low from May 2016 at 1.2457.
USDJPY – Downside threat
Reinforcement of the failure Thursday back from the 112.38/42 area with a push lower into the end of the week down through support at 111.52 and 111.32 sustaining downside risk into Monday.
Moreover, growing risk is for a push back down through 110.91, which would see an intermediate shift from bearish back to neutral.
- We see a downside bias back through key 110.91; break here aims for 110.62, maybe down to 110.18.
- But above 111.58 opens risk up to 112.08.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 115.50/63 and may be up to 118.6.
What Changes This? Below 110.91 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 108.89.
2 Hour Chart
USDCAD – Bearish trend reinforced
Another move to a new setback low Friday, sustaining negative pressures from the significant sell-off early in July through key supports at 1.2676 and 1.2651, aiming lower again Monday.
Furthermore, this activity reinforces the June push below 1.3219, which signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
l We see a downside bias down through 1.2519; below targets 1.2500 psychological/option level, then a critical cycle low at 1.2457.
l But above 1.2605 opens risk up to 1.2653.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2457.
l Below here targets 1.2127, 1.2000 and 1.1919.
What Changes This? Above 1.3015 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3347.