The US Dollar more negative versus the Japanese Yen and CAD

Chris Lee
  • The US Dollar continues to weaken across G10 currencies.
  • For USDJPY we see risk lower through a key level at 110.91, which would neutralise the intermediate term bullish tone for an intermediate-term range theme.
  • For USDCAD the bearish trend remains very much intact with threat to a key cycle low from May 2016 at 1.2457.

USDJPY – Downside threat

Reinforcement of the failure Thursday back from the 112.38/42 area with a push lower into the end of the week down through support at 111.52 and 111.32 sustaining downside risk into Monday.

Moreover, growing risk is for a push back down through 110.91, which would see an intermediate shift from bearish back to neutral.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias back through key 110.91; break here aims for 110.62, maybe down to 110.18.
  • But above 111.58 opens risk up to 112.08.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 115.50/63 and may be up to 118.6.

What Changes This? Below 110.91 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 108.89.

2 Hour Chart


USDCAD – Bearish trend reinforced

Another move to a new setback low Friday, sustaining negative pressures from the significant sell-off early in July through key supports at 1.2676 and 1.2651, aiming lower again Monday.

Furthermore, this activity reinforces the June push below 1.3219, which signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias down through 1.2519; below targets 1.2500 psychological/option level, then a critical cycle low at 1.2457.

l But above 1.2605 opens risk up to 1.2653.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2457.

l Below here targets 1.2127, 1.2000 and 1.1919.

What Changes This? Above 1.3015 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3347.

Daily Chart