The New Zealand Dollar pushed still lower versus the US Currency at the end of last week to approach a key technical level, .6664. A break through here would shift the intermediate-term outlook into June from very negative in a range environment to far more bearish.
This would then see NZDUSD join AUDUSD in a more significant bear trend, with AUDUSD still aiming for key targets in the .7106/7000/6971 area through month-end into June.
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Yet another new setback low Friday through .6688, but again to hold just above our key .6664 level, still capped by modest resistance at .6773, to leave negative pressures from the early May Double Top pattern and leave the bias lower Monday.
Furthermore, the Double Top pattern below .6805 produced an intermediate-term shift to neutral, with strong risk for an intermediate-term shift to bearish below .6664.
- We see a downside bias for .6682 and key .6664; break targets .6600.
- But above .6773 aims for .6801/07, maybe then to .6843/48.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7054 and .6664.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7054 aims higher for .7232 and .7396/7413.
- Downside: Below .6664 sees risk lower for .6572/41, .6418 and .6343.
Despite a bounce to push above initial resistance at .6759, whilst below better barriers at
Daily NZDUSD Chart
The bounce Thursday was capped by firm barriers at .7243/49 (and .7260) and the roll lower Friday reinforces the bear trend and recent new low (.7141), to keep the bias still lower Monday.
- We see a downside bias for .7160/41; break here aims for key support at .7106, then .7066/60
- But above .7243/49 aims through .7260 for 7298.
The early May break below key .7411 signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7106.
- Below here targets .7000, .6971, maybe .6825.
What Changes This? Above .7719 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7835.
Daily AUDUSD Chart