A strong rally by the New Zealand Dollar (versus the US Dollar) through Thursday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cut, to signal an intermediate-term bullish shift for the balance of August with the break through .7324 (despite a setback Friday).
The AUDUSD spot rate has continued to extend gains through mid-August (again despite a Friday setback) to another new cycle high last week and aims for the 2016 high at .7835 (and likely above into the second half of August).
A positive intermediate-term shift was seen on Thursday with the probe above .7324.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
- Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.
What Changes This? Below .7106 eases bull risks; through .7084 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6948.
An intraday setback Thursday from the new cycle high (.7340), then a Friday prod below .7183 support back from .7254/66 resistances switches to a negative correction tone for Monday.
- We see a downside bias for .7181; break here aims for .7144 and .7106, maybe even key .7084.
- But above .7254/66 opens risk up to .7309 and the new cycle peak at .7340.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
The previous strong push above .7676 reinforced our intermediate-term bullish view, whilst the 2013-2015 down trend line is currently .7750 this week and a weekly close above here would be an even more significant bullish statement!
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7835/50/78.
- Above here targets .8000 and .8164/66.
What Changes This? Below .7484 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7403.
A notable setback on Friday back from .7725 resistance (ahead of firm barriers up at .7755/60/65), through supports at .7683 and .7659 to signal a mini top structure and leave a negative consolidation theme in the very near term for Monday.
- We see a downside bias for .7619; break here aims for .7594.
- But above .7665 opens risk up to .7725.
Daily AUDUSD Chart