- The US Dollar has resumed its slide lower versus the global currencies through mid-February, as the severe “risk off” environment from early in the month has eased, with equity market rebounds forming bases.
- We see the negative USD outlook to extend for the second half of February and likely into March.
- For the NZDUSD the recent push up to match the January peak at .7437 highlights the ongoing, intermediate-term bull theme.
- The AUDUSD rebound of the past week has rejected a more negative tone, for an intermediate-term range theme, but with skewed risks for a bullish shift again (but only confirmed above .8046).
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NZDUSD Bullish intermediate-term shift
We have stressed in recent reports that “we see an intermediate-term range defined as .7420 to .7138, BUT with the strong risk now for a bullish shift above .7420” and the surge through here on Friday sees a shift to an intermediate-term bull theme into the second half of February.
Furthermore, despite the intraday setback Friday, whilst above .7343, we still see the bias higher for Monday.
- We see an upside bias for .7411 and the dual cycle highs at .7437, then extension risk to .7455.
- But below .7343 opens risk down to . 7305, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- Whilst above .7175, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to .7558 and .7744.
What Changes This? Below .7175 signals a neutral tone, quickly shifting negative below .7138.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Upside risks, despite dip
A dip lower Friday but only after another new rebound high that built on Thursday’s aggressive upside through key .7960, and whilst holding above .7889 we still see an upside bias for Monday.
The mid-February push above .7960 neutralised the intermediate-term bear view, to switch the outlook to an intermediate-term range theme into the second half of February (range seen as .7756 to .8046).
- We see an upside bias for .7951 and .7989; break here aims for .8015, maybe towards key .8046.
- But below .7889 aims for .7839, maybe .7801, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: .7756 to .8046.
- Upside Risks: Above .8046 sets a bull trend to aim for .8136, 8295 and the .8452/76 area.
- Downside Risks: Below .7756 sees a bear trend shift to target .7635 and .7500.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart