A move to a new cycle high for the New Zealand Dollar (versus the US Dollar) in late August and despite a modest setback, the early September rebound maintains a bullish tone for NZDUSD into the first part of September.
Despite the AUDUSD FX spot rate setback from mid-August, a turn of month defence of the .7484 level has maintained the intermediate-term bullish outlook, to leave a recovery and bull tone for this week and into mid-September.
A new recovery high above .7240 in latter August reinforced the intermediate-term bullish theme.
Despite the late August setback, chart retrace support in the .7165/63/44 area has held (ahead of stronger support at .7084), with the rebound into early September to probe above .7347 leaving a bull bias for Monday.
- We see an upside bias for .7347/60; break here aims for .7380.
- But below .7265 opens risk down to .7223, maybe .7200.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
- Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.
What Changes This? Below .7106 eases bull risks; through .7084 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6948.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
A late August defence of .7484 (from .7486) has for now rejected a shift from a bullish intermediate-term outlook to a neutral intermediate-term theme.
Furthermore, this activity alongside the rebound in early September, above .7582 on Friday, leaves a positive bias into Monday.
- We see an upside bias for .7616; break here aims for .7655/61.
- But below .7532 opens risk down to key .7486/84.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7835/50/78.
- Above here targets .8000 and .8164/66.
What Changes This? Below .7484 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7403.
Daily AUDUSD Chart