GBPUSD shifts bullish; EURUSD sees a positive range theme

Chris Lee

  • Latter March has seen slightly more dovish tone FOMC at their recent meeting, but a more hawkish outcome from the MPC meeting of the Bank of England, alongside growing Trade Wars tensions, particularly between the USA and China.
  • For Forex markets, the US Dollar has rallied strengthened versus both the Australian and New Zealand currencies, weakened versus the safe haven Yen.
  • The more hawkish tone by the Bank of England has seen GBPUSD push above 1.4145 to set an intermediate-term bull trend.
  • For EURUSD, a neutral erratic consolidation theme pervades, but with the Euro enjoying slight reserve currency/ flight to quality status, setting the EURUSD bias higher.

GBPUSD Upside bias

A solid consolidation on Friday after the spike higher Thursday, reinforcing the latter March above the key 1.4145 level, keeping the bias higher Monday.

The latter March break above 1.4145 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.4172 for 1.4220/28; break here aims 1.4278/87.
  • But below 1.4074 opens risk down to 1.4016, maybe 1.3982.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.4346.

  • Higher targets would be 1.5006
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3780 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3710 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.4172 1.4220/28* 1.4278/87** 1.4346*** 1.4387
1.4074 1.4016* 1.3982** 1.3921** 1.3873**

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart


EURUSD Very erratic, risk skewed higher

A positive tone Friday after the erratic session Thursday, but within the broader range theme we still sees an upside bias for Monday.

The probe above 1.2435 set a broader range theme into March (1.2539 to 1.2153).

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2384/90; break here aims for 1.2412/13, maybe 1.2445/46.
  • But below 1.2284 opens risk down to 1.2249/37.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.2539 to 1.2153.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.2539 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2600/02, 1.2827 and 1.3000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2153 sees a bear trend to target 1.1914, 1.1716 and 1.1553.

Resistance and Support:

1.2384** 1.2412/13** 1.2445/46** 1.2484 1.2539***
1.2336 1.2249/47** 1.2205/03 1.2153*** 1.2110

4 Hour EURUSD Chart