GBPUSD poised for an intermediate-term bear shift; EURUSD just positive

Chris Lee

  • When we last reviewed the GBPUSD and EURUSD Forex rates here on 1st April we highlighted downside risks for both Forex rates.
  • Since then, another delay to Brexit until 31st October has seen little political development, whist the GBPUSD currency pairs has drifted lower and we now see risk for an intermediate-term shift from a bull theme to a bear trend, triggered below 1.2967.
  • The EURUSD FX rate has seen an erratic theme so far in April with a rebound and a setback, reinforcing the intermediate-term range, but with the very short-term bias just to the upside.

GBPUSD poised for an intermediate-term bear shift below 1.2947

The negative tone we have highlighted in recent reports was reinforced by a better push late last week has below 1.3031/28 supports, and to grind lower through the Easter Holiday season, to leave risks lower for Tuesday.

The aggressive, mid-March advance through the late February peak at 1.3350 switched the intermediate-term outlook to bullish, BUT now with a strong risk for an intermediate-term bear shift below 1.2947.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for key 1.2947; break here aims for 1.2890 and 1.2830/25, maybe 1.2771.
  • But above 1.3050 opens risk up to 1.3130/33.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3608 and 1.4000
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2947 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3050 1.3130/33 1.3196** 1.3269** 1.3311/31*
1.2947*** 1.2890 1.2830/25 1.2800 1.2771***

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart


EURUSD risks just stay higher

A significant selloff last Thursday through various supports as low as 1.1228 (to 1.1224), but then a rebound through the Easter Holiday season to hang onto a positive tone from the earlier April, firm advance (through 1.1295 resistance), to aim higher for Tuesday.

We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1302/04 and the 1.1324/32/41; area break here aims towards 1.1390.
  • But below 1.1224 opens risk down to 1.1205 and maybe key 1.1175.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1448 to 1.1175.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1448 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1509, 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1302/04 1.1324/32/41* 1.1390** 1.1448** 1.1448**
1.1224* 1.1205* 1.1175*** 1.1144 1.1119**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart