- We last reviewed the GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs here on 13th May and highlighted the intermediate-term GBPUSD bear trend and an indecisive tone for EURUSD.
- The GBPUSD Forex rate has continued its push lower to reinforce the intermediate-term shift from a bull theme to a bear trend below 1.2967.
- The EURUSD FX rate shifted to an intermediate-term bear trend earlier in May but erratic activity in latter May highlights a still indecisive tone.
GBPUSD bear trend intact
Again, a push lower to a new cycle and multi month low Friday, to reinforce, sustaining bear forces from the latter May selloff through key 1.2668 support and despite a small rebound, whilst contained by 1.2672 resistance to keep risks lower for Monday.
The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is now for a break above 1.3196 for an intermediate-term bull shift.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2558; break here aims for 1.2513, maybe key 1.2437.
- But above 1.2672 opens risk up to 1.2702, maybe 1.2751.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2437.
- Lower targets would be 1.2366 and 1.2109
- What Changes This? Above 1.3047 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3177 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart
EURUSD correction bias higher
A rebound Friday from above the recent and earlier May lows at 111.15/06 to probe above modest 1.1173 resistance, easing bear forces from the latter May selloff through numerous supports, switching risks for a correction higher for Monday.
The latter April plunge through 1.1175 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see an upside bias for .1215 and 1.1224; break here aims for the key 1.1264/65 peaks.
- But below 1.1136 opens risk down to 1115 and 1.1106.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1109.
- Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
- What Changes This? Above 1.1264/65 peaks shifts intermediate-term the outlook back to neutral; above 1.1324 is needed for a bull theme.
4 Hour Chart