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GBPUSD intermediate-term bear trend intact; EURUSD stays indecisive

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  • We last reviewed the GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs here on 13th May and highlighted the intermediate-term GBPUSD bear trend and an indecisive tone for  EURUSD.
  • The GBPUSD Forex rate has continued its push lower to reinforce the intermediate-term shift from a bull theme to a bear trend below 1.2967.
  • The EURUSD FX rate shifted to an intermediate-term bear trend earlier in May but erratic activity in latter May highlights a still indecisive tone.

GBPUSD bear trend intact

Again, a push lower to a new cycle and multi month low Friday, to reinforce, sustaining bear forces from the latter May selloff through key 1.2668 support and despite a small rebound, whilst contained by 1.2672 resistance to keep risks lower for Monday.

The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is now for a break above 1.3196 for an intermediate-term bull shift.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2558; break here aims for 1.2513, maybe key 1.2437.
  • But above 1.2672 opens risk up to 1.2702, maybe 1.2751.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2437.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2366 and 1.2109
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3047 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.3177 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour Chart

EURUSD correction bias higher

A rebound Friday from above the recent and earlier May lows at 111.15/06 to probe above modest 1.1173 resistance, easing bear forces from the latter May selloff through numerous supports, switching risks for a correction higher for Monday.

The latter April plunge through 1.1175 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .1215 and 1.1224; break here aims for the key 1.1264/65 peaks.
  • But below 1.1136 opens risk down to 1115 and 1.1106.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1109.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1264/65 peaks shifts intermediate-term the outlook back to neutral; above 1.1324 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour Chart