EURUSD and GBPUSD upside bias

Chris Lee

  • The US Dollar has broadly weakened since mid-November, with the US$ particularly surrendering support versus the Euro and against the GB Pound.
  • EURUSD has neutralised the bear trend with a push above 1.1880, but with the bias got a push higher through late November.
  • For GBPUSD, although the market remains within a broader non-trend environment, recent pushes above resistances leaves the bias to the upside into month-end and potentially into early December.

EURUSD Intermediate-term shift to neutral; upside risks

We have stated in recent reports that “November risk is still for a challenge to 1.1880, above which would see an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral” and the surge through here Friday sets a broader range theme for late November and into December.

Furthermore, the asymmetrical threat within the intermediate-term range (1.2089-1.1553) is for an upside challenge.

The push through 1.1880 and 1.1936 leaves risks higher for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.1945; above opens risk to 1.2005, then 1.2034.
  • But below 1.1895 aims at 1.1835.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2089 and 1.1553.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
  • Downside: Below 1.1553 sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.

Resistance and Support:

1.1945 1.2005** 1.2034* 1.2089*** 1.2135
1.1695 1.1835* 1.1760 1.1712** 1.1660**

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


GBPUSD Positive tone

Another rally Friday through 1.3338 resistance, reinforcing Wednesday’s strong advance through the resistance area at 1.3276/80 area and upside pressures from the mid-November bounce, keeping the bias higher Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias through 1.3366; above targets 1.3402, maybe 1.3464.
  • But below 1.3276 opens risk up to 1.3231.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
  • Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.

Resistance and Support:

1.3366 1.3402 1.3464 1.3515 1.3596**
1.3276 1.3231* 1.3181 1.3113 1.3060*

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart