- The US Dollar has seen a slightly more positive tone through December with the passage of the tax reform legislation.
- For EURUSD we see an intermediate-term range between 1.1961 and 1.1712.
- But December weakness was reinforced after the ECB Meeting last week and sets the risks for a more bearish shift into December (through 1.1712).
- GBPUSD remains within a broader non-trend environment (1.3026-1.3658), but December recovery failures places the bias to the lower end of the range into year-end.
EURUSD
Downside bias
A negative tone Friday to reinforce downside pressures after Thursday’s ECB Meeting, to surrender 1.1765/63 supports and keep the bias lower for Monday.
We still see an intermediate-term neutral, broader range theme for December (with the range mow see as 1.1961-1.1712).
For Today:
- We see a negative tone to aim for the key 1.1716/12 area; below here targets 1.1660.
- But above 1.1781 sees the bias to 1.1809, possibly towards 1.1863.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1961 and 1.1712.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.1961 targets 1.2089 and aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
- Downside: Below 1.1712 targets 1.1553 and sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1781 | 1.1809* | 1.1863** | 1.1900/03 | 1.1961*** |
| 1.1716/12*** | 1.1660** | 1.1621 | 1.1584 | 1.1553*** |
4 Hour Chart
GBPUSD
Negative bias
A late sell off Friday through 1.3391 and 1.3346 supports to probe into the 1.3302/1.3290 foundation area, to re-energize negative pressures from the earlier December down trend through 1.3319 support, shifting the bias lower for Monday.
We still see an intermediate-term neutral range theme into December (1.3026-1.3658).
For Today:
- We see a negative tone through the 1.3302/1.3290 support area; below here targets 1.3220, maybe 13181.
- But above 1.3372 sees the bias to 1.3421, possibly towards 1.3466.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.3026 and 1.3658.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
- Downside: Below 1.3026 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3372 | 1.3421 | 1.3466* | 1.3520* | 1.3549* |
| 1.3302/1.3290** | 1.3220** | 1.3181 | 1.3113 | 1.3060** |
4 Hour Chart
