EURUSD and GBPUSD bearish intermediate-term shifts

Chris Lee

  • Late February and early March has renewed weakness in global equity markets (and particularly for European indices), as concerns have resurfaced from the US with respect to inflationary pressures, a more hawkish FOMC and growing potential for Trade Wars.
  • In the FX markets, this has seen another  flight to quality (with JPY the strong currency), followed by the US$ as a safe haven.
  • For EURUSD, the surrender of the 1.2159 level set a bear trend for March.
  • For GBPUSD, the push below 1.3730 to start this month has set an intermediate-term bear trend into March.

EURUSD Intermediate-term bearish shift, looking for 1.2360 to cap

Another rebound Friday above resistance at 1.2285 and 1,2321, but we still see bear pressures resurfacing from the selloff last week through key 1.2159 support, and whilst below 1.2352/60 we see the bias lower for Monday

The early March surrender of the 1.2159 level set a bear trend for March.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2250; through here sees 1.2205/03 and then back maybe to 1.2153.
  • But above 1.2352/60 (which we would look to try to cap), we see the bias higher for 1.2435.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1914.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1716 and 1.1553
  • What Changes This? Above 1.2360 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.2435 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.2352/60** 1.2435* 1.2484 1.2539*** 1.2587
1.2153 1.2110 1.2059 1.2026 1.2001/00*

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


GBPUSD Bearish intermediate-term shift and downside risks

A minor rebound effort Friday, but whilst below 1.3855 we see bear pressures from the early march surrender of key 1.3763 and 1.3730 supports, to aim lower again Monday.

The push below 1.3730 to start March set an intermediate-term bear trend into March.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3755 and 1.3710, maybe then to 1.3683 and 1.3664, even 1.3610.
  • But above 1.3855 maybe aims for 1.3923.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: 1.3730 and 1.4145.

  • Downside Below 1.3730 targets 1.3456 and maybe closer to 1.3300.
  • Upside: Above 1.4145 aims for 1.4346, 1.4465 and 1.4600.

Resistance and Support:

1.3817 1.3855 1.3923** 1.3996** 1.4070/73**
1.3755 1.3710* 1.3730*** 1.3683 1.3664

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart