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EURUSD Correction Bias (Lower) and GBPUSD Negative Range Theme

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The US Currency has attempted firm rebound efforts since the FOMC decision on Thursday, trying to reject recent USD setbacks.

Although EURUSD retains an underlying bullish tone, activity Friday points to a correction lower into this week.

For GBPUSD, the recent September recovery effort has seen a shift to a broader range theme. Again, however, the Friday setback points lower into this week.

EURUSD

A setback Friday, but the strong rally Thursday through 1.1321/29, 1.1373 and 1.1438 resistances reinforced the August strong rally through 1.1436, 1.1534 and 1.1680 and aims higher into latter September.

The Friday setback, however, leaves a downside correction bias for Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1266; break here aims for 1.1212/11, maybe 1.1169.
  • But above 1.1310 opens risk up to 1.1378.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above 1.1015 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1714.
  • Above here targets 1.1871, 1.2000 and 1.2254.

What Changes This? Below 1.1015 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0846.

Daily EURUSD Chart

EURUSD Chart

GBPUSD

  • The firm push above 1.5509 last week saw a shift to a range theme into latter September, reinforced by the positive bias post-FOMC on Thursday
  • However, the Friday setback below 1.5550 leaves a downside bias for Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.5494; break here aims for 1.5460/55, maybe 1.5410/00.
  • But above 1.5579 opens risk up to 1.5669/78.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.5162 and 1.5819.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.5819 aims higher for 1.5930, 1.6000 and 1.6182/88.
  • Downside: Below 1.5162 sees risk lower for 1.5087, 1.5000 and 1.4856.

Daily GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Chart