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EURUSD and GBPUSD still stuck in intermediate-term ranges

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  • We highlighted continuing intermediate-term, broader range environments for both the EURUSD and GBPUSD currency rates here on 17th September
  • Erratic activity since then has seen the bias shift slightly, however, with the threats of more bullish outlooks for both FX rates easing.
  • Moreover, for EURUSD, the bias is currently more towards an intermediate-term bearish shift below 1.1300.
  • For the GBPUSD Forex rate, the range is seen as 1.3299 to 1.2894.

 

EURUSD Risk lower, despite bounce

A minor bounce Friday from just above 1.1451 new support, from 1.1483, to prod above initial 1.1542 resistance (to 1.1549), but we still see negative forces from last week’s selloff through key Inverse Head & Shoulders support at 1.1529/25, to keep the bias lower for Monday.

The early October probe below 1.1529/25 shifted the intermediate-term outlook from bullish back to neutral, with the range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1483 and 1.1451; break here aims for 1.1393, maybe towards 1.1355.
  • But above 1.1542/49 opens risk up to 1.1594, maybe towards 1.1624.

 Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1815 to 1.1300.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1815 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1996/2000 and 1.2476.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1300 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.

Resistance and Support:

1.1542/49 1.1594** 1.1625* 1.1685 1.1720*
1.1451 1.1393** 1.1355* 1.1300*** 1.1271

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd

GBPUSD Risks shift higher

An unexpectedly strong advance Friday through resistance at 1.3041/54 and to probe the 1.3116 spike high, to build on Thursday’s (off of 1.2921 from just above our 1.2919 support), rejecting near term downside forces and flipping the bias higher for Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.3299 to 1.2894, BUT with skewed risk for an intermediate-term bearish shift below 1.2895/94.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3123 and 1.3164; break here aims for 1.3218.
  • But below 1.3062 opens risk down to 1.3002.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.3299 to 1.2894.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.3299 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.3363, 1.3473 and 1.3618.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.2894 sees a bear trend to target 1.2784, 1.2661 and 1.2500.

Resistance and Support:

1.3123 1.3164 1.3218** 1.3277 1.3299***
1.3062 1.3002* 1.2921/19** 1.2895/94*** 1.2811

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd