Although the US currency retains an underlying bullish tone versus the major currencies, Friday losses post the US Employment report, leaves a more positive tone for the Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar. Early this week, the bias is for corrective gains for EURUSD and AUDUSD (maybe for a base) and for a USDJPY corrective setback.
- A firm bounce from midweek through modest 1.0960 resistance Friday to leave a correction higher early this week.
- However, the prior August setback from 1.0990/99, the probe below 1.0868 support, the July push below 1.0819 and July stall back from ahead of 1.1216 aims lower for mid-August.
- Early this week, however, we see an upside bias for 1.0990/99; break here aims for 1.1050/60, maybe closer to 1.1114/29.
- But a push below 1.0904 opens risk down to 1.0846 and maybe 1.0807.
Daily EURUSD Chart
- A setback Friday through support at 124.50, back from a prod up to 125.07 leaves a correction bias lower into Monday.
- However, the push last week above 125.00 reinforced the previous push above 124.48 and alongside the late July rally from our support area at 122.90/85 leaves a bullish outlook for mid-August.
- Early this week however, we see a downside bias for 123.97; break here aims for 123.48/30, which we would look to try to hold.
- But above 124.50 opens risk up to 125.01/07.
Daily USDJPY Chart
- A far more positive tone last week after the RBA statement Tuesday to surge higher, and again Friday to push above the down trend lines from June and May.
- This has more than just eased bear extension pressures with strong bias for a base and neutral shift into early August (only above .7499).
- Whilst below .7499 we see a still bear theme for August, but growing risk is for a push through here and a switch to a broader range theme.
Daily AUDUSD Chart