Euro and GBP stay bullish and positive respectively versus the US$

Chris Lee

  • Despite corrective rebounds for the US Dollar versus major currencies in latter August, the Euro retains a bullish theme against the greenback, whilst the GB Pound is positive.
  • EURUSD still sees a bullish outlook into September, reinforced recently by the push above psychological/option target at 1.2000.
  • For GBPUSD, the August setback did neutralize the intermediate-term bull theme, but the recent rebound into late August sets a positive tone within a broader range phase.

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EURUSD – Recovery bias

An erratic tone Friday, but we see upside pressures from the spike above 1.1930 resistance and the Thursday rebound from 1.1821, keeping the risks higher for Monday (whilst above 1.1821).

Moreover, the latter August bullish extension through the psychological/option target at 1.2000, reinforced the intermediate term bullish threat into September.

For Today:

  • Whilst above 1.1821, we see an upside bias for 1.1930; break here aims for 1.1980/84, maybe closer to 1.2070.
  • But below 1.1821 opens risk down to 1.1772, maybe 1.1729.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.2000, 1.2173, maybe closer to 1.2600/02.

What Changes This? Below 1.1661 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.1603.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart


GBPUSD – Rebound bias

A solid push higher Friday through the late August peak at 1.2979 to reinforce the Thursday rebound off of 1.2851 and previous reversal above the downtrend line from early August, leaving the threat to the upside Monday.

The break below the July swing low at 1.2809 and also the uptrend line from March, shifted the intermediate term outlook from bullish to neutral.

For Today:

We see an upside bias for 1.2996; break here aims for 1.3032, maybe a better resistance target at 1.3059

But below 1.2903 opens risk down to 1.2851.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2587 and 1.3269.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.3269 aims higher for 1.3445 and 1.3534.
  • Downside: Below 1.2587 sees risk lower for 1.2363 and 1.2107.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart