- The US currency is weakening again against G10 currencies.
- For USDCAD the down trend is intact and set to resume after the earlier August correction.\
- GBPUSD losses in August (driven by Brexit concerns) have eased the bullish tone, but the rebound effort late last week points to a recovery bias.
USDCAD – Bearish threat
Another push to the downside on Friday through support at 1.2515, further reinforcing the setback from mid-August and maintaining the bias to the downside for Monday.
Despite an early August recovery effort, the setback from mid-August has maintained the intermediate term bearish theme.
- We see a downside bias for 1.2447; break here aims for the cycle low at 1.2411.
- But above the 1.2540/42 area opens risk up to 1.2607.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to targets 1.2127, 1.2000 and 1.1919.
What Changes This? Above 1.2778 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.3015.
GBPUSD – Bearish threat
A better rebound than we had anticipated on Friday to push up through the tentative downtrend line from early August and also minor resistance at 1.2855, indicating a small base structure and threatening further upside correction activity into Monday.
The break below the July swing low at 1.2809 and the uptrend line from March, shifted the intermediate term outlook from bullish to neutral.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2918; break here aims for 1.2970.
- But below 1.2825 opens risk down to 1.2773.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2587 and 1.3269.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.3269 aims higher for 1.3445 and 1.3534.
- Downside: Below 1.2587 sees risk lower for 1.2363 and 1.2107.
4 Hour Chart