Canadian and Australian Dollars Stay Bullish through mid-March

Chris Lee

The Canadian Dollar retains a more bullish tone into March versus the US Dollar, with USDCAD having broken significant intermediate term support factors since latter February. Therefore, this sees a USDCAD bear trend extending into late Q1.

AUDUSD has further extended the strong bull trend from February in early March, with a break up through key Q4 2015 highs, to retain a bullish trend into late March.


A rejection of the Thursday rebound effort (the 1.3446 level capped), with a recovery failure and bear extension Friday to a new cycle low, to leave the bias again lower into Friday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3166/57; break here aims for 1.3105 and maybe more important targets at 1.3038 an 1.3000.
  • But above 1.3316 opens risk up to 1.3400 and 1.3446, which we would look to cap.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the short/ intermediate-term outlook below 1.3360.

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.3038 and 1.3000.
  • Below here targets 1.2828.

What Changes This? Above 1.4017 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.4236.

Daily USDCAD Chart



A dip lower Thursday, but the small top was rejected with the surge higher Friday to another new recovery high to hit the .7545/50 target area, re-energising the underlying bull theme and aim back higher Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for .7583/88 and .7625; break here aims for .7653.
  • But below .7480 opens risk down to .7425/06.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The break above .7243 set a bull theme.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7653.
  • Above here targets .7738, .7849 and .8000.

What Changes This? Below .7106 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6971.

Daily AUDUSD Chart